Stuck Inside Columbus with the Wrigley Blues Again

Final Post

2006-05-30T12:55:00.000-04:00

I can't root for this team any more. I've already wasted about 40% of my life expectancy as a Cubs fan. I can't let the other 60% be wasted as well. I cannot sit idly by an let the disease of rooting for this franchise infect my son. There's still hope for him to be happy.

$100 million dollars has bought one of the worst on-field products in recent memory. There's more plate discipline in the 12-year-olds' rec-league down the street. I'm tired of trying to schedule my life around WGN telecasts, spending money on XM radio that would be better served in a college fund, and defending my fandom in a college football town, to a bunch of pseudo-baseball fans that occasionally root for the Indians or Reds (when they're good).

I'm not giving up on baseball- I'm just giving up on the Cubs. Until this franchise shows 1/1,000,000th of the loyalty to fans that we have shown to this franchise, I'm done.

Nothing Beats a Sweep

2006-04-10T08:51:00.000-04:00

A sweep of the Cardinals is a great way to start the work week.

The sad truth is, I fell asleep on the couch in the top of the 8th with the Cubs still down 4-3. I woke up to the cold wet nose of a lonely Rottweiler at 2:30 a.m., to find the "ticker" showing a Cubs win. I fell asleep to nightmares, but went back to sleep to happy dreams.

From the 7 innings I did see, Marshall looked good. I liked his stuff, his poise. I think he's a solid #2 or #3 in the making. A 2007 of Zambrano, Prior, Marshall, Guzman, Maddux, sounds pretty good to me. I didn't forget about Wood, but I thought including Prior on this list was about as optimistic as one could be without being labeled delusional.

Wuertz manned up against Encarnacion and then gave up a hit to Pujols. I'm o.k. with that. Pujols is the reigning MVP. I wasn't expecting a sweep, and would never expect the Cubs to hold Pujols hitless for a series. It's just too unrealistic. Averages catch up at some point and Wuertz drew the short stick.

I'm still concerned about the "long-ball or lose" offense that the Cubs seem to be carrying over from last year, but I'll think about that later. Right now, we all deserve to just sit back and savor the sweep.

Side note: I hate living on Eastern Time during baseball season. I intend to retire on Pacific Time, so east coast day games are on in the morning and west coast evening games start at 7:00.

It was ugly, but a "W" is a "W"

2006-04-04T10:33:00.000-04:00

What a way to open the season!

The Cubs managed to put up 16 runs and still look awful. The bright spot of the day, and hopefully the season was Matt Murton. I wonder if Dusty had heart palpitations when he filled out a line-up card with two rookies starting.

Scott Williamson looked pretty familiar to Reds fans. D-Lee dropped an easy throw from Aramis. Big Z did not have his stuff. Dusty double-switched every time he got a chance- and got Neifi into the line up as soon as possible. The bullpen is being overworked already.

But now that the negativity is out of my system, I will say that I'm excited to see real baseball again. It was a long winter. I'm not worried about Zambrano- he'll find his stride and hitting is always ahead of pitching early in the season. I'm excited about the possibility of a whole season of Matt Murton in left. I still don't trust Dusty, but if Murton plays well, Dusty won't have a choice but to play him.

It's only one game, but at least it's a win. If the Cubs can pull off 13-14 more in April, they'll be on track for a playoff spot. Let's get #2 tomorrow.

Slacker of a Blogger Could be New Cubs GM

2006-02-09T09:49:00.000-05:00

I've been a very lazy blogger. As the summer of 2005 wound down, I had a hard time exerting any energy on the Cubs. My initial malaise, followed by the birth of my son, a relatively ho-hum offseason, and an Ohio campaign season that seems to be heating up hasn't left much passion for blogging.

But I did recently purchase tickets to see the Cubs' trip to Jacobs Field. Still, I'm not nearly as excited about the baseball season as I was at this point last year. Quite frankly, I don't expect much out of the 2006 Cubs. I'll still root for them, I'll still follow them and I'll still tune in faithfully- but like most of my life as a Cubs fan, I'm just hoping that they finish higher than 4th in the division. Hopefully I'm wrong, hopefully I'm surprised- but I'm not holding my breath.

On the bright side, I think my own malaise and apathy toward this blog and the Cubs organization may qualify me for the General Manager position. Had I been GM over the last few months, I'm not sure that the team would necessarily be in a worse position than they are right now heading into spring training. I'm pretty sure I could ink over-the-hill pitchers with replacement parts in their arms for twice market value. I'm pretty sure I could down-grade the right field position and do nothing about left field. I'm pretty sure I could issue the same, recycled press releases stating "If we're healthy, we'll be competetive."

I haven't posted since August and with 10 minutes of typing, I think I'm caught up.

Ronny Cedeno: Ifs, Ands and Buts

2005-08-29T07:26:00.000-04:00

Ronny Cedeno looked great on Sunday. Looking ahead to 2006, here are the scenarios that could and should make him the everyday Cubs shortstop.

If

IF the Cubs acquire a center fielder and a left fielder with legitimate bats, the Cubs would not be dependent on significant offensive output from the shortstop position. I think it's important to let Cedeno be a 7th or 8th-hole hitter starting out. He can flash his great glove and develop offensively over the course of the season instead of having the immediate pressure of carrying too much offensive weight. I think he has the potential to be a good big league hitter, but it's important to let him grow into that role. The best thing he can do for the team and its pitching staff is play great defense. Don't give opponents extra outs and maybe even take away a few hits.

And

Nomar is not re-signed. [The Tribune Co. will not pay Nomar millions to sit the bench.]

But

BUT the Cubs will probably NOT take care of the holes in center and left, making big offense a priority out of the shortstop position and a likely re-signing of Nomar, who is probably more valuable to the Tribune Co. in terms of marketing and merchandise.

BUT even if the Cubs do sign a centerfielder, a left fielder and let Nomar go elsewhere, as long as Neifi and Macias are both on the roster, Cedeno will be third on Dusty's depth chart for the shortstop position and another year will be wasted in a talented guy's development.

Post Script

Carlos Zambrano, (who my wife affectionately calls "Pedro") was the man yesterday. The triple is one my favorite plays in baseball, second only to the squeeze play. When a pitcher hits a triple, its better than a squeeze play. I know the season's over in terms of playoffs, but don't tell "Pedro". I'd like to see a few more starts like that before the end of the year.

Dusty, Dusty, Dusty...Maddux?

2005-08-12T17:25:00.000-04:00

You have to give the guy credit. He knows how to stir the pot.

Discussing the retirement of a guy like Greg Maddux- a player near and dear to the hearts of Cubs fans across the country- is a sure-fire way to guarantee boos from the Wrigley faithful every time he steps out of the dugout from here on out. I believe this is a calculated move and an attempt to force the Cubs to let him go. He'll take his $4 million and head back to California.

Prior to his stint with the Cubs, I always respected Dusty. He always seemed to have an average team on paper that always seemed to be in the thick of things in September. Because he managed on the left coast, I rarely got to see his teams play and my knowledge of those Giants teams consisted of Barry Bonds, Jason Schmidt and the NL West standings. Now I believe that he benefited from weak divisional competition, becoming a media darling, and a fan base with low expectations. It was clear over the course of last weekend that rookie manager Willie Randolph can coach circles around Dusty. Willie Randolph had an awful start in a much tougher fan and media environment and was able to ride it out and get his team playing hard, smart baseball.

If it was worth 8 figures to send Sammy Sosa packing, then I think it's worth $4 million to send Dusty packing. The Cubs could hire a rookie manager themselves at a lower cost. Here are two suggestions:

1) Joe Girardi- He knows the Cubs. He knows Chicago. Championship managers know how to manage pitching staffs, which is why I believe back up catchers have so much success as managers. I admit that this suggestion isn't very original as this idea has been kicked around for some time now.

2) Greg Maddux as a player / manager- Again, he's a guy that knows the Cubs, knows Chicago and knows just about everything there is to know about pitching, situations and opposing teams. It's been a while since any of the major sports has had a player/manager. I think Pete Rose may have been the last player/manager of note. Maddux only has pitch once every five days. This scenario will likely never happen, but may be the smartest move the Cubs organization could make. The second-smartest decision the Cubs could make would be to fire Rothschild and let Maddux serve as a player / pitching coach.

Disappointment

2005-08-11T06:50:00.000-04:00

I was very disappointed to wake up this morning, flip on Sports Center and not see a story about Dusty Baker getting fired.

I fear we're stuck with Dusty through '06.

Canton Bound

2005-08-08T06:05:00.000-04:00

If it wasn't clear to everyone before this weekend, the Cubs postseason hopes are gone. The Mets played better defense, ran the bases more effectively and out-pitched the Cubs. Milwaukee has now moved ahead of us in the division and wild card standings.

I'm heading up to Canton this evening to watch the Bears and Dolphins in the Hall of Fame game. Hopefully it will be more entertaining than last night's ESPN game.

Going Nowhere Fast

2005-08-05T06:58:00.000-04:00

Q: What do the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, White Sox, Indians, Twins, Angels, A's, Rangers, Braves, Nationals, Phillies, Marlins, Cardinals and Astros all have in common?

A: All 15 teams have better records than the Cubs.

Not on that list are the Mets (who have an identical record as the Cubs going into today's head-to-head match-up) and the Padres who are leading the NL West with a losing record. Half the teams in baseball have played better than the Cubs through 108 games. Why should I believe that the final 54 games will be any different? Nomar's return? Wood in the bullpen?

I hope Nomar comes back and plays well. If he can still swing the bat, I'd like to have him back next season. But he's not going to turn around a lackluster team by himself. If Derrek Lee's performance this season hasn't been able to do that, we shouldn't expect Nomar to do it. Speaking of Derrek Lee, just how bad would this team be without him? They'd be fighting over 6th place with Cincinnati and Pittsburgh.

As for Wood, if you can't pitch in the first inning because you have bad mechanics and a bad attitude, why am I to believe that you can pitch the 8th or 9th innings? Is the rationale that if he's only out there for one inning instead of five, then he'll only walk 1/5 as many batters an thus minimizing the amount of damage he can do? Puh-lease. Yes, I understand that John Smoltz made a successful transition to the bullpen after arm surgery. But John Smoltz was a perennial Cy Young candidate before going to the bull pen. Success for Smoltz should not have been a surprise. And it shouldn't be a surprise now that he's starting again. Kerry Wood is no John Smoltz, and the expectations of this transition are way too high.

I'm hoping things change between October 2005 and April 2006, but I'm not planning on seeing any broadcasts from Wrigley Field in October this year.

Sandberg / Lawton / Palmeiro / General State of Affairs

2005-08-02T06:57:00.000-04:00

#23- Ryne Sandberg

One of the great induction speeches from one of baseball's most reclusive players. The speech was pointed, classy and true. Just like Ryno's game. I guess I should have expected nothing less. My favorite moments were the props he gave to the Hawk and mentions of Pete Rose.

Matt Lawton

Nothing spectacular, but not bad either. I've always liked Matty Lawton. I enjoyed watching him play in Minnesota and got to see him on TV quite a bit when he played for Cleveland. He's not a superstar, but he's a legitimate big leaguer. Lawton hustles on every play, goes after every ball and works hard every minute he's on the field. The team can only benefit from having a guy like that around.

Palmeiro Busted

First Bret Boone calls Jose Canseco a liar. Then he comes into spring training looking about 25 pounds lighter. Then he goes from being an RBI king to getting released from the Mariners. Hmmm.

Next up, Rafael Palmeiro calls Jose Canseco a liar. Then he wags his finger at a Congressional panel and states under oath that he's never used steroids. Now he tests positive and gets suspended. Hmmm.

Maybe Dave Stewart was right when he said that he didn't like Jose as a teammate or a person, but couldn't say that Jose was a liar.

General State of Affairs

On Time Warner cable in Columbus, WGN is channel 16 and TBS is channel 17. I spent Sunday flipping back and forth between the Cubs game and the Braves game. I've done this several times throughout the summer and one thing is very clear when you watch both teams- the Braves are the playoff team. The Braves seem to play with a sense of urgency. They always seem to be fighting and scrapping for every little play. The Cubs seem very relaxed. If the team isn't scoring runs, it doesn't seem to bother anybody. When the Braves aren't scoring runs (which is often the case with their anemic offense) they hit and run, steal, bunt guys over and try to make things happen. They play with hustle and intensity every day. That's how you overachieve and that's how you get into the playoffs. Until the Cubs get a little bit of fire, they'll continue to play 2nd fiddle to St. Louis & Houston.

Cardinals Series Wrap Up

2005-07-25T05:16:00.000-04:00

Friday- When the Big Z pitches like that, you have to deliver a win.

Saturday- LaRussa just wanted to remind everybody that this series doesn't mean anything to the Cards. You let Pujols get his rest, but not in the second game of a series against your rivals. And especially not when both corners of your outfield and Scott Rolen are out with injuries. Sure, the Cubs got the win, but the Cardinals made the statement.

Sunday- There are a lot of things I've come to expect with this team: Mark Prior serving up pitches like he's Kerry Wood, great hitting in the lead off spot, great managerial decisions when the score is tight, and grand slams from Neifi Perez.

In summation, this was the chance to sweep the Cards on the road. Botched execution in game one. Taking game two from a manager that seemed to want to forfeit. Struggling to win game 3. It took way too much effort to take two out of three from a Cardinals team that is wounded and going through the motions. Playoff teams sweep that series. And the series before in Cincinnati. This team splits in Cinci and limps to two games in St. Louis. The 2005 Cubs might finish above .500. That would be 3 years in a row and that's pretty good. I would be pleased with that. Not overjoyed, but pleased. Three consecutive winning seasons has never happened in my 29 years.

Only concerned with the Top of the Line-Up

2005-07-20T18:00:00.000-04:00

Unlike many fans, I'm not going to ask that Jim Hendry make the deals to put the Cubs into the playoff race (at least for this season). Even if Hendry pulled off 3-4 blockbuster deals, the Cubs are not going to be playing in the post season.

What I would like Hendry to do, is make deals to get the best lead-off and #2 hitters he can possibly find and put them in front of Derrek Lee. Lee has carried this team against its will to an above-.500 record thus far. He deserves the best possible shot at the triple crown.

That's not going to happen if he doesn't get the RBI opportunities. D-Lee is only 2 off the pace of Carlos Lee in the RBI department. I'm convinced he'd be 10 back if the Patterson-Neifi experiment was still underway at the top of the order.

I agree with many bloggers that Juan Pierre from the Marlins would make an excellent pick-up for the Cubs. And while you're on the phone with the Marlins, you may as well pick up Luis Castillo. Castillo knows Pierre's tendencies, he's fast and a pretty good base runner in his own right. Castillo's OBP is .415 this year, which ain't too shabby. I'm sure Derrek would appreciate it.

I'm of the opinion that if we can't beat the Cardinals, we should at least steal some of their thunder by propelling D-Lee into superstar status and keeping Pujols #2 in the MVP balloting.

I wonder if....

2005-07-15T18:18:00.000-04:00

Uncle Bud would be willing to make some schedule changes.

If the Cubs could play Pittsburgh for the next 73 games and the Cards could play a rotation of the Yankees, Red Sox, Braves and Nationals for their remaining games, we may just contend for the division.

So What?

2005-07-15T07:24:00.000-04:00

4 games in a row. Great performance by Prior. So what?

This team is going to play well enough to get people's hopes up for a playoff run and then fade at the end. The fact of the matter is, if they were going to turn things around, they're about a month too late. There are too many teams playing consistently well this year.

Let the young guys play. Let Nomar play if & when he can to see if he's got anything left. Start making your shopping list for next year.

At Least One Bright Spot

2005-07-11T20:10:00.000-04:00

Jeromy Burnitz- .276 avg. 14 HR 48 RBI 50 Runs 4 SB
Sammy Sosa- .225 avg. 9 HR 27 RBI 28 Runs 1 SB

Remember when Sammy was invincible?

Now a journeyman replacement has nearly doubled up his production...and hasn't pissed off an entire clubhouse in the process.

I'm no Jeromy Burnitz fan, but he's had a much better year than the rest of the outfield.

Up and Running

2005-07-07T17:40:00.000-04:00

Back to blogging with the power of a new (and empty) hard drive and a new motherboard. In my absence, the Cubs have really stunk up the joint.

No Excuses
Injuries are not a legitimate excuse. Atlanta's sitting atop the NL Wild Card standings. Mike Hampton is on the DL. Tim Hudson is on the DL. John Thomson is on the DL. Chipper has been on the DL and has been playing banged up when he hasn't been on the DL. Rafael Furcal is doing nothing offensively. Their bullpen is arguably just as bad as the Cubs' bullpen (well, maybe not THAT bad). They are platooning at first base. And...are you paying attention Dusty?...they are playing a bunch of rookies. They are actually putting their farm system to use.

On paper, the Braves- in a highly competetive division- should be battling with the Mets to stay out of last place. In reality, they're 4 games ahead of a Marlins team that seems to do everything well. Meanwhile, the Cubs are 13 behind St. Louis and in 6th place in the Wild Card.

Curt Schilling
Because Terry Francona is a good manager and because Curt Schilling is a "whatever it takes to win" type of guy, Schilling is going to the bullpen. Perhaps they nabbed this idea from the multitude of Cubs bloggers who were suggesting the same type of move to Dusty Baker and Kerry Wood. It takes a lot of guts for a manager to ask a marquis starter to go to the pen. It takes humility for a marquis starter to change his game for the benefit of the team.

Building for '06
I hope that Hendry uses the trade deadline as an excuse to sell and build for next year. I think it's a shame to waste Derrek Lee's mammoth year, but it's over. It's time to build a team around him for next season. There's a guy in center that wouldn't mind seeing in another jersey come August 1st.

Romote Post

2005-05-13T15:52:00.000-04:00

My brand spanking new Gateway 820GM Media Center PC with all the bells and whistles has a 250 GB hard drive that's completely fried. While the good folks at Gateway are sending a replacement free of charge, I'll be out of the posting business until everything gets repaired.

Hope to return to posting soon.

Hope the Cubs take at least 2 in D.C.

Gloom & Doom

2005-05-02T07:22:00.000-04:00

Weekend Ramblings

While 12-12 on May 1st is not the end of the world or the season, the Cubs got progressively worse as the weekend series went on.

Maddux looked great Friday night. I think he'll still win 15+ and earn his salary.

There has to be somebody in Iowa that can pitch 5-6 innings and replace Kerry Wood. Or just let Glendon Rusch start. Kerry either needs to go on the DL or go to the bullpen.

Jason Dubois' line: 2-2, with a double and a home run. I admit that I've been on the Jason Dubois bandwagon since before spring training. I think it's clear even to neutral observers that Dubois is a hitter. He doesn't need to be coddled into "match-ups only" at-bats. He's hit well at every level and he's hit well in his limited opportunities with the big club. GET HIM IN THE LINE-UP!!

I watched the Braves-Cardinals game on Saturday night, pulling for a Cardinals and hoping to see Jim Edmonds take one on the coconut. It was down pouring for most of the game and there was questionable umpiring throughout. Conditions and calls aside, both managers made several substitutions and surprisingly they all made sense with the game situations. Watching a well managed game was a shock to the system.

This weekend was one of wasted opportunity. The Cubs were playing an anemic offensive team in Houston, who was without Berkman or Lidge. The Cardinals were without Isringhausen and dropped 2 of 3 to the Braves. Not only did the Cubs gain no ground on the Cards, they let the Astros pick up a game.

April Recap

Going along with the theory of winning 2 out of 3 at home and playing .500 ball on the road, the Cubs should have finished April at 14-10. The Cubs actually finished 12-11 (6-5 at home, 6-6 on the road), with one game rained out. It's off-pace for 94 wins, but not terribly so.

By itself 12-11 is not a huge concern, but six other teams in the National League finished April with a record that out-paces the 94-win mark. Obviously, there won't be six teams with 94 wins, but it's easier to start off hot and level out than it is to claw your way up from behind.

May Preview

Sticking with the 2/3, .500 philosophy, the Cubs should go 16-11 in May. 19 of the 27 games are against teams that are currently below .500 (note: 1 of these was yesterday's loss). Derrek Lee and Neifi Perez can't be expected to carry the offense for another month. Things are going to have to pick up. It will be much easier to make up ground in May than in June. [June brings series against the Marlins, Red Sox, Yankees, and Blue Jays.]

Weekend Series Match-Ups

2005-04-28T07:47:00.000-04:00

Friday: Maddux vs. Clemens
Saturday: Wood vs. Backe
Sunday: Prior vs. Oswalt

It's going to be a tough weekend. Fortunately, the Cardinals take a trip to Atlanta sans Isringhausen. Let's hope the Braves score some runs.

Note to Len & Bob: No matter how well Oswalt pitches on Sunday, you're not allowed to praise him.

Where would we be without Mr. Lee?

2005-04-28T06:50:00.000-04:00

In the cellar, that's where.

Derek Lee had another magical day yesterday. The Cubs were down 6-1 when I left work. By the time I got home, they were within 3 due to a 2-run homer by Lee (which I missed). Sensing that I missed the 2-run homer, Derek Lee delivered a 3-run homer in the 7th to make sure I could see one. Lee is now among the league leaders in all three triple-crown categories.

Corey's Heroics

A big FYC yesterday (Chuck is even FYC-ing himself over at Ivy Chat). As much as I rag on Corey, the guy certainly has his moments. It would have been shameful to waste Derek's performance with a loss. C-Pat picked it up and I'm happy he did. He's never going to be the lead-off hitter we need, but he can still be a hell of a ballplayer.

Don't Forget Neifi!

Although overshadowed by Lee's MVP-like day and Corey's walk-off, Neifi! [it's now mandatory to type Neifi! with an exclamation point] had another multi-hit game. He bunted for an out in the bottom of the ninth. Some may question that choice, but I'm o.k. with it. The way things are going for Neifi! it wouldn't have shocked me if he would have somehow gotten an infield double out of bunt. When things are going your way, they're going your way.

***********************************

Clemens vs. Maddux in that bandbox they call a ballpark in Houston on Friday. I have my reservations, but will hope for the best. I have a political dinner to attend Friday evening and will likely miss the first part of the game. Who on earth schedules a political function on the same night two 300-game winners face off? And we wonder why the world is in the shape it's in. I may ask my wife for an assist. One of the advantages of pregnancy is that my wife can always claim stomach queasiness to get out of social functions. It may cost me a frozen custard but I'm anticipating an early exit.

Bengals 11, Bears 9

2005-04-27T07:48:00.000-04:00

I know, the idea of the Bears scoring 9 points is a little far fetched.

"Coach Z"

The best coaching move of the night was made by Carlos Zambrano. Big Z clearly didn't have it last night. It happens. Even the best pitchers have off nights and Zambrano certainly had one yesterday. After serving up the homer to Adam Dunn, Z decided to take out his frustrations on Austin Kearns and take himself out of the game. It ended up being a pretty good coaching move on Z's part. The Cubs recaptured the lead (only to blow it later) and Glendon Rusch came in and pitched pretty well.

I'm a-walkin'

In an 11-9 game it's clear that neither staff dominated. The disturbing part is not the hits allowed. Sometimes teams just come out hitting the ball. The disturbing part is the 7 walks issued by Cub pitchers compared to the 1 walk issued by the Reds staff. A 7:1 ratio usually translates into a loss. When the offense kicks in 9 runs you've got to be able to win.

"Sammy" Dubois

In typical Sosa fashion, Jason Dubois demolished a pitch onto Waveland Avenue and then in the next half-inning, dropped a routine fly. Even Corey got in on the E-action on a single later in the game. Dubois error didn't cost a run, but I believe that there's no such thing as an error that doesn't hurt you. You're giving your opponent another opportunity and allowing at least one batter an additional at-bat. In fairness, the Reds infield didn't look much better. There should never be 4 errors in a Major League Baseball game.

Bright Spots

Ronny Cedeno got his first big-league hit last night and it came in a clutch situation. I hope this is a sign of things to come.

Michael Barrett continued to hit. The move up in the line-up seems to suit him well. He also made another terrific defensive play, gunning the lead runner at second on a chopper in front of the plate.

Wrap up

Despite a poor outing from your starter, when the offense puts you back on top, you have to lock it down and get a win. Without walks and errors, the Cubs run away with this one.

LaTroy, Kerry and the Neifi Revolution

2005-04-25T07:23:00.000-04:00

LaTroy Hawkins

Didn't the Minnesota Twins already invest the Research & Development hours and dollars in examining Hawkins as a closer? Didn't they determine, through exhaustive study, that LaTroy is a great pitcher in the 8th inning, but can't pitch in the 9th? Didn't the Cubs sign LaTroy for the sole purpose of setting up?

I hope the experiment is now over. I hope LaTroy's confidence hasn't been destroyed to the point where he can no longer pitch in the 8th. If you're building an office building, you don't ask the HVAC guys to do the plumbing. All you're going to get is shoddy workmanship and project delays. Let the HVAC guys do the HVAC work.

Kerry Wood

I'm getting to the point where I don't even want to watch the Cubs when Wood is pitching. In Columbus, I only get to see the WGN or ESPN televised games (or FSN-Ohio when they play Cincinnati). The rest, I have to follow on-line. When WGN does have the game, I rearrange my life to make sure my ass is in front of the TV. Unfortunately, I think I've seen every Kerry Wood start. This walk a guy, hit a guy, strike out a couple routine is getting really old. Even the batters he doesn't walk or hit are going deep in the count. It's just getting so old and so frustrating that I don't know if I can bring myself to watch him pitch anymore.

The Neifi Revolution

One of the wonderful things about baseball is the fact that you never know what's going to happen on any given day or in any given season. Neifi, despite a career status as a late-inning defensive replacement, is (along with Lee) driving the Cubs offense. I don't understand it. I don't want to understand it. I just know I love what I'm seeing out of Neifi so far.

It's only April, so it's not quite Buster Douglas knocking out Mike Tyson, but Neifi's playing like an all star to the shock of everyone who follows the game. Even in his outs, Neifi looks composed in the box. Nearly every time he makes contact, he's hitting the ball squarely. More importantly, he's hitting in clutch situations. If Neifi's still above .325 this time next month, I expect a cult following to start forming. I can see it now- Che Guevara-like t-shirts with Neifi's image sold on street corners throughout Cub nation; the Wrigley crowd chanting Nei-fi, Nei-fi, in the bottom of the 9th.

I'm a realist, so I don't expect this offensive output from Neifi to last. But even if Neifi has a strong first half or comes close to hitting .280-.285 for the season, I think it's safe to say that he will have exceeded expectations.

"Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?"

2005-04-22T17:56:00.000-04:00

Hell no.

It's easy to dwell on the negatives in life. For Cubs fans, it's even easier. I've grown up with the Cubs organization and learned to expect disappointment. My general philosophy is to expect the worst of any situation going into it, so if anything good happens, it's a happy bonus. Following this organization will get to you after a while and reading other Cubs blogs has made me realize that I'm not alone in my misery.

In Columbus, I'm surrounded by Reds fans, Indians fans and Yankees fans (Yanks AAA affiliate plays here). The Reds fans don't really follow baseball anymore, but are always quick to mention the Big Red Machine. The Indians fans spend most of their time talking about how much they hate the Yankees (I think a lot of this is payroll envy). But they can at least talk about those really strong playoff teams in the late '90s. The Yankees fans are so spoiled they think that dropping four games in a row is cause for alarm and "Big Stein" to make a deal.

I remember the summers of my childhood when ONLY dropping four in a row was considered a successful west-coast road trip. I don't have a Big Red Machine to remember. I certainly can't boast about twenty-some-odd World Series titles. Hell, I can't even talk about a good 3-year stretch. Even in our playoff years of '84 and '89 we were beaten by teams that took a pounding in the World Series. For most of my life any hopes of playoff glory were usually taken care of by mid-August. I've watched a lot of bad baseball, year-in, year-out. It was never fun, but it was consistent.

There's a certain amount of comfort in consistency, even if it's consistently poor. As a species, we humans are generally resistant to change. Whether you're talking about the civil rights movement or the fact that moving is the single most stressful event of a person's life, evidence of this resistance to change is everywhere. Sure our Cubs were awful, but at least they were consistent. In an ever-changing world and our ever-changing lives a mediocre security blanket is still a security blanket.

Then came 2003. The Boys in Blue had the audacity to play inspired baseball. They gave us hope. And it wasn't just a good season. There was actually more talent in our dugout than in the other team's 90% of the time. Cubs fans lost their collective minds. We didn't know how to react to this thing called winning.

I still believe that Cubs fans are having a hard time adjusting to the concept of winning. In many ways, we're like a pre-teen catching his first glimpse of a dirty magazine. We don't really understand it- we just know it's good and we want more. But any time you change a culture and raise it's expectations, there are going to be some growing pains. A 4-3 road trip is now considered sub-par. Our expectations are a little out of whack. Sure, we put on a good face and try to revel in the victories. We desperately want to live in Yankee-land, where you're always in contention, but on some level we don't believe the winning is real. Deep down we keep waiting for the Cubs of our youth to return because losing has been our way of life for so long. It's what we know. It's what we recognize.

Sure, 2004 was a disappointment. With Nomar's injury, Woody's shoddy pitching and a shaky offense, it's easy to find negatives in the 2005 campaign. This team has obvious holes. But every team in the league has holes. The Cardinals won over 100 games last year with no real starting pitching. The Red Sox won with a questionable defense and a line-up better suited for a slow-pitch softball league. Every team has holes. The teams that win are able to transcend their obstacles. I've developed a taste for this Happy Winning Juice and I'm not willing to write off the season just yet. It's a long, long season. Until we're mathematically eliminated, I'm keeping the faith.

It ain't over now.

MRI Changes Everything

2005-04-22T06:21:00.000-04:00

I was withholding my worry about Nomar until after the MRI results were released. I'm withholding no longer. I think we could go a month without Nomar and survive. But a minimum of 2-3 months really worries me. It's likely that no trades can be made until late May or early June, but I hope Hendry is firing up the scout team and looking for an answer.

In game day news, Dempster pitched well enough to win and the offense failed to do anything. Neifi had 2 hits again and that was about it. When Neifi is your offensive leader, you're not going to win. Still, I'm glad to leave St. Louis with at least a split in the series and an above-.500 road trip.

Now we have 3 against the Pirates and 3 against the Reds. A sweep is in order in at least one of these series. A 5-1 homestand before heading to Houston to finish out April will put the team right where it needs to be, record-wise.

Don't Worry, Big Z Will Make It All Better

2005-04-21T07:47:00.000-04:00

Big Z was on fire last night. Were you taking notes, Kerry?

That's what aces do. They buckle down and take care of business, especially in rivalry games. Zambrano was a joy to watch last night. It's so important to win the first game of a series and Z delivered on the mound and at the plate.

Of course, all of the national coverage is focused on Nomar's injury. I'm not really worried about it (at least until after the MRI). The guy wasn't producing. My attitude on his slump has been, "Better in April than September." I feel the same way about an injury. It just might work out o.k. in the long run. Hairston will get regular at-bats. Corey will be out of the lead-off spot. And for some reason, Neifi is actually playing well. I don't understand it. I watch in disbelief every time the guy gets on base. I don't expect it to last and I'm not going to try to analyze it- I'm just going to enjoy the ride.

I'm also in awe of Derek Lee so far. The guy is absolutely locked in. He's going to the opposite field and taking what the pitcher gives him.

Barrett seems to be coming out of his offensive funk. He's actually getting some hits and he's putting good wood on the ones that aren't finding holes. I like Barrett. I've pitched to several bad catchers and one pretty good one. There is nothing quite like having confidence in your catcher. Barrett has been a witch behind the plate so far this year, and continues to throw out baserunners. His defensive play will do more for the staff and the team than his offensive numbers and his defense (if you excuse the wild throw in Cincinnati) has been great.

I'm riding this "Beat the Cardinals" high right now and feeling pretty good about the team again. Dominant performances from your ace have a tendency to lift the spirits of both team and fan base. Hopefully this is contagious and Dempster catches the fever today. Down with the Cards!

Credit Where Credit is Due

2005-04-20T07:33:00.000-04:00

Corey Patterson played an outstanding game last night. I'm not willing to take back all of my Corey criticism over one game, but the guy played big last night. I'd like to see more of it.

Finding Their Way

2005-04-18T18:34:00.000-04:00

Well, we're 6-6. It's not great, but it's not awful. We're 6-6 and a lot of people are wondering what is wrong with the Cubs. The Yankees are 4-8 and I'm willing to wager that if you took a national poll, most people still believe that the Yankees will be in the playoffs come season's end.

As I posted back on February 7th, you'd like to win 2/3 at home and play .500 on the road. The Cubs are 1-win off of that pace at this point, which isn't too shabby and will hopefully balance that out and finish April at 14-10 or better.

More importantly, I think that April and first half of May is a time when teams start to define who they are as a collective unit. This team is still finding its identity. This is a new team with a lot of new faces and huge expectations. Here's what I've learned (are you listening, Dusty?) so far:

- This is a better team with Jerry Hairston in the line-up;
- Neifi is proving everybody wrong so far. Hell, he's proving everybody who knows anything about baseball wrong. Normally, I don't like admitting that I'm wrong, but in this case, I hope Neifi proves how dumb we all are well into October;
- Derek Lee looks primed for a career year;
- Michael Wuertz could be the 7th inning guy I've wanted to set up Hawkins & Borowski;
- Woody needs to be demoted to #4 status so he can pitch at his skill level rather than his celebrity.

Let's take both against the Reds and split with the Cards and come home 9-7.

Befuddled and Worried

2005-04-11T18:09:00.000-04:00

In the course of 4 days, I've gone from "Cautiously Optimistic" status to "Befuddled and Worried" status.

On Sunday, Todd Walker went out with an injury. My immediate thought was, "Good thing Hendry brought in Hairston." Today, Neifi Perez starts at second base. Are you telling me that the guy we got in return for Sammy Sosa is 3rd-in-line behind Neifi Perez?

To add to the confusion, not only is Corey still batting lead-off, but Neifi was batting second. Why not just put two outs on the board to start the 1st inning and let Nomar bat? It will save everyone some time and MLB is trying to speed up the games. And what deal with El Diablo did Neifi make to not only get a new contract, but to be the first pinch hitter Dusty goes to and the immediate replacement for Walker?

Dempster proved to me today that he belongs in the rotation. He strikes guys out, hits guys and walks guys. He fits the Kerry Wood model of Cubs pitching. He did settle down after the first couple of innings, but was playing with fire early and often. Eventually, that catches up to you and you end up never having a 15-win season.

The team that played on Saturday was the team I expected to see out of the gate. Zambrano locked it down when the team needed innings and a kick in the keister. I give the team credit for gutting it out on Sunday to win the series, but it shouldn't take 33 innings to take 2 out of 3 from Milwaukee. The shaky bullpen is already being overextended and if it continues August and September will be ugly.

Props to Glendon Rusch who continues to do everything he's asked to do and doing more with average talent than Wood and Prior do with a world of talent.

In other news, St. Louis is starting off in much the same boat as the Cubs, but the Astros are the real deal. The Pettitte-Clemens-Oswalt combinations is rolling while our "ace" may not pitch tomorrow because it may be too cold &/or rainy. Suck it up, Nancy.

Cautiously Optimistic

2005-04-05T07:02:00.000-04:00

If we could only face 100+ loss teams every day, we may just run away with the NL Central.

I was excited to see the game yesterday. I was even more excited to see the Cubs beat the stuffing out of the baseball. But let's keep it in perspective. Arizona isn't just a bad team. They are a really bad team. They are the kind of team that legitimate contenders sweep on their way to a division title. But hitting and winning are contagious and starting the season on a hot streak doesn't suck. Here's hoping we roll out of Phoenix with a goose egg in the loss column.

Back from a Break

2005-03-21T07:27:00.000-05:00

I haven't posted in a while for several reasons:

1) The news out of Cubs camp has been too depressing. I don't want to think about it or talk about it until April.

2) I've been sucked in by the NCAA tournament. A few years ago, I realized that my life was consumed with too many sports telecasts and I needed to cut back. I stopped watching the NBA; I stopped watching the NFL; and then I stopped watching college basketball. But the tournament is the tournament and I still get the bug every year. This year, it's been an exciting distraction to the bad news in Arizona.

3) The biggest distraction of all. My wife and I recently found out that we're expecting our first child. The infant Cubs clothing is on order.

When my feet touch the ground again, I'll get back to regular posting.

The Ankiel Saga Continues

2005-03-09T17:03:00.000-05:00

Rick Ankiel was supposed to make a spring training start against the Marlins. The game was rained out. Rick Ankiel is now an outfielder. Huh?

In 2000, Rick Ankiel had some of the best stuff I've ever seen. He had one of the best left-handed hooks in baseball. He was 20 years old at that time and looked like he was going to be every Cubs fan's nemesis for a generation. In the fall of 2000, Ankiel turned one of the greatest rookie campaigns in recent memory into one of the biggest meltdowns (nudging out Mark Wohlers) in recent memory.

Ankiel told the Post-Dispatch, "the frustration and the way it effects me off the field--it just wasn't worth it." This is probably true. I can respect the human element of this story and you have to give credit to a guy for sacking up and admitting to himself and the baseball world that he just couldn't hack it.

From a business standpoint, though, the Cards have to be pissed. They'll never say it publicly, but behind closed doors I'm sure they're not happy. They've invested several years and several dollars worth of warm-and-fuzzy coddling of this guy, expecting him to turn out to be a home-grown Mark Mulder. Instead, they have a left-fielder with a .280 minor league average who is out of club options and will either make the team as an outfielder or will be placed on the waiver wire. Not exactly the spring training news that St. Louis fans will like to hear less than a month away from Opening Day.

Getting Ahead of Myself

2005-03-03T06:50:00.000-05:00

Well, with the first pitch of Spring Training on its way, it's time to make predictions on the 25-man roster.

Pitching
I think the Cubs will leave camp with 12 pitchers and 13 position players. Obviously 5 of the pitching slots will be taken by Wood/Prior/Zambrano/Maddux/Rusch, which leaves 7 spots remaining. I think Dempster will be a long reliever and may even be a 7th-inning specialist to set up LaTroy in the 8th who will set up Borowski in the 9th. I really like the idea of having a solid 7th-8th-9th inning combo to take pressure off of the starters and save their arms. That leaves 4 spots. Remlinger will be a lefty out of the bullpen and I believe that if Rusch is in the rotation, you'll want to take an additional lefty. This spot will go to Will Ohman. Now we're down to two spots. These two spots are a crap shoot, but I believe Sergio Mitre will get one of them and will act as the 6th starter/long reliever. The final spot will likely go to Novoa, but could be won by Leicester, Wellmeyer or Weurtz.

Position Players
This one's pretty easy to figure out from a roster stand-point. Of the thirteen available slots, it will be some combination of Barrett, Blanco, Lee, Walker, Ramirez, Garciaparra, Dubois, Patterson, Burnitz, Hollandsworth, Hairston, Macias and Perez. Starters and amount of playing time is another matter.

Trade Bait
By late April or early May, we should have a good idea as to whether or not we have a closer that can do the job or a left fielder that can do the job. I have a feeling that Burnitz is here to stay (at least this year) regardless of his play. If things look grim in the closing department &/or in left field, I think Hendry will have to part with some pitching prospects to bring in guys that can do the job. Probably the best option will be to look for a small market team that is likely not going to be a contender and is forced to try to win with youth (i.e. Tampa). I think Mitre, Leicester, Wellmeyer and Wuertz are all major league caliber pitchers, but they're not stars and if they're not going to be able to break into the bigs with the Cubs, they should be traded for the talent the Cubs do need. Any combination of these four pitchers would be attractive to several teams and may be able to bring in a big bat, a closer or both if the situation calls. It may be baseball blasphemy to say you have an overabundance of young pitching, but with the Cubs it could be true. Hopefully Hendry is able to pull the trigger and part with a few of these guys to bring in the necessary pieces to win.

But perhaps I'm getting ahead of myself.....

A Few Quick Items

2005-02-23T07:14:00.000-05:00

First of all, Barry Bonds proved that his ability to be a complete ass is in mid-season form.

Barry Bonds side story: I'll never forget sitting in the bleachers one day when the Cubs were playing the Giants. Shawon Dunston (in his first year as a Giant) came out to the warning track during BP and was chatting with fans. He was talking about not wanting to play outfield and wanting to stay in the infield where the action is. He said center field was too easy and too boring. One of the other fans said, "If center field is so easy, why can't Barry do it?" Shawon's reply: "Barry? Barry's an asshole." Add a couple more ticks to the Shawn-O-Meter for that hit.

I predict that Jim Hendry will make a deal during spring training for Ugi Urbina. The guy's mother was kidnapped. Only the Cubs (and maybe the Yankees) would trade a guy when he's in a different country dealing with a personal tragedy. I'm sure that the Tigers wondered if he'd even play this year. And who could blame the guy if he didn't? I say Urbina is a Cub on Opening Day.

Baseball's hypocrisy is in full swing. Guys named in "Juiced" for taking steroids are denying the allegations to reporters while coming into camp noticeably smaller (I'm looking at you, Pudge!).

All reports coming out of Arizona seem very upbeat. I was pretty optimistic about the season a month ago, but I'm really getting jazzed up now. I like the balance in the line-up, even if I'm not crazy about all the personnel. I like the pitching staff, even though the roles have yet to be solidified. I'm anxious to see if Dubois can win a starting job. I'm anxious to see if Corey can successfully learn plate discipline. Most of all, though, I feel good about the team attitude. Hopefully, the Sammy questions have run their course. I think most of the guys did a good job with those questions. Let's get ready for April!

Juiced

2005-02-14T07:10:00.000-05:00

The Canseco book hits stores today. I do intend to read it. As predicted, everybody in baseball is trying to say Jose is a liar, or calling his revelations "sad" and "unfortunate."

Before dismissing the accusations, please consider this bit of logic:

It is widely rumored and rarely dismissed that baseball had a big cocaine problem in the 80s. The drug-binge stories of the '86 Mets alone are widespread and legendary. Cocaine was a banned substance at the time and players were tested for it. Even though players knew they would be tested, fined and suspended for partaking in a substance that knowingly hindered health and athletic performance, several players were caught doing it anyway.

Until last year, baseball did not test for steroids. Players knew that they would not be tested, fined or suspended. They knew steroids could dramatically improve their strength and their athletic performance. They knew that they could grab millions of dollars more by putting up bigger power numbers. Are we to believe that the same culture in which players were snorting blow on the plane somehow transformed into a paragon of morality when it came to performance enhancing drugs? Are we really supposed to believe that only a handful of bad eggs were actually juicing?

Come on. If a group of people were told that they could double their production at work and triple their salaries without putting forth any extra effort while having no system of checks or repercussions, most of the people in that group would jump at it. It wouldn't be just 1/100 or even 1/10- it would be at least half. Add to that mix the ego of the professional athlete and you have a recipe for an epidemic.

The messenger on this one is a bad guy, but the message- even if only 10-20% of it is true- is far worse.

Canseco Allegations

2005-02-08T07:07:00.000-05:00

Before I get into my rant, I do need to make a confession. I was a big Jose Canseco fan when I was a kid. I had his posters on my wall and albums and albums of baseball cards bearing his likeness. Canseco, along with McGwire were my American League heroes. [Sandberg was my Cubs idol.] The prospect of an A's-Cubs World Series in 1989 would have been the ultimate dream come true for me as a 13-year-old kid. Canseco always came off a bit arrogant, but I admired his talent, bat speed, and huge home runs. That being said, I'm an adult now and I'm able to see things more objectively. I realize that Jose was a cheat and a fraud. He's a disappointment to kids like me who believed in him and were inspired by him. I'm old enough now not to be heartbroken over the discovery that (at least) one of my childhood heroes is a fraud, but I'm young enough to understand how low a 13-year-old Jason Giambi fan must feel these days.

I say these things upfront, because some may read this post and think that I'm defending Canseco. I'm not. I'm not one of these embarassed fans that will believe anything the guy says in the same way that some Pete Rose fans refuse to believe he bet on baseball. The guy cheated. Because of his actions I have childhood memories that are based on falsehoods and he tarnished a game that I used to live and still love dearly. In short, Jose would not want to ask me to testify as a character witness on his behalf.

With that disclaimer out there, I will say that we are about to witness one of the biggest public smear campaigns of all time. Major League Baseball, its owners, teams, television networks, ESPN, etc. are all going to go after Canseco with everything they've got. They have to. There's simply too much money involved. I've worked in and around political campaigns for several years now and this episode has the potential to be every bit as dirty and ugly as a political campaign. When someone attacks a candidate, you have two choices: 1) ignore it; try to take the moral high-road, or; 2) fight back with everything you have. If it is possible to discredit the source, you do everything possible to discredit the source. In this case, Canseco makes himself an easy target.

One of the reasons Bill Clinton became president and John Kerry did not is because Kerry chose to ignore the Swift Boat ads. In 1992, Clinton always fought back and fought back hard. He made himself look like an underdog, a fighter that wasn't going to be picked on and it worked. Any time a scandal broke or someone tried to bash one of Clinton's proposals, his team would flood the airwaves and print sources with overloads of information. They put out so much information that the real issue was eventually lost and forgotten. Baseball will attempt to follow the same strategy with the Canseco book. They'll try to make the book and it's revelations a mere blip on the off-season radar that quickly passes by.

And it's already started. Tony LaRussa is already calling Canseco out as a money-grubber out to tarnish McGwire out of jealousy. The last thing Major League Baseball wants is a daily steroid "outing" heading toward opening day. The league's PR machine will try to spin their way out of and around the real issue at hand: steroids are a huge problem and have been for 15+ years. Owners, players, trainers, etc., have been turning a blind eye to it for over a decade because of the increasing competition over the American entertainment dollar. This smear campaign will continue and it will be vicious. Just keep in mind that it's all B.S.

You see, the American legal system has protections against false accusations. It's called libel. While players and their surrogates try to win the PR battle, it will be interesting to see how many of them file libel suits against Canseco. My guess is very few, if any. And there are no excuses. All of these guys have attorneys and they can certainly afford to pay the fees. People like to believe in (and news outlets like to feed us) a world of clear-cut good guys and bad guys. The truth is, there's plenty of abuse, hypocrisy, greed, lies and deception on both sides of this one.

This will mark another dark time for a game that has brought so much light and joy to my life. I believe that the game can survive this. It will be difficult, but it's best to face these problems head on and find a way, no matter how painful, to move beyond them. The 800-lb. gorilla has been sitting in the corner long enough. It's time to stop pretending it's not there and get serious about getting rid of it.

A Season By Numbers: The Blueprint

2005-02-07T07:26:00.000-05:00

Prelude:

Each fan tends to analyze different statistics to gauge the pulse of a season's successes or failures. I'm no exception to the stat-bug. I believe that baseball fans love statistics for a variety of reasons. First, and most obvoious, they give us something to talk about, especially throughout the seemingly endless offseason when there are no games to fulfill our baseball "fix". Another more recent development is fantasy baseball. Fantasy baseball has turned even casual fans into stat-junkies, hungry for any information that might help their team triumph over that jerk in the cubicle next to yours or that obnoxious Mets fan in accounting. Most importantly, though, I think the true fans (or the purists) enjoy stats because they help make sense of a six-month, 162 game season. Statistics help break things down into simpler, more managable segments- which is something most people try to do with life. [Look for my essay on "Baseball and Life" to make an appearence sometime before Opening Day.]

With this post, I will lay out the stats that I believe provide a reasonable barometer of success and expectations. I refer to this as The Blueprint and I will be providing updates at the conclusion of each month of the season to show how closely the Cubs are sticking to the plan. Here is my list of five "Standards" [the word "rules" is a little too rigid] that most playoff teams meet:

Standard #1: Win 94 games, play in October.
Wins are the most important statistic and the only stat that really matters. You can make the playoffs without 94 wins and it's possible to win 94 games and not make the playoffs, but if you win 94 games, it is very likely that you will make the post season.

Standard #2: Win 2/3 of your home games and 1/2 of your road games.
Because most series throughout a season consist of three games, you could say "win every home series." Out of 81 home games, winning approximately 2/3 will give you a home record of 54-27. Go 40-41 on the road, and you'll finish the season with 94 wins.

Standard #3: Win 15-16 games every month.
With a six-month regular season, it's easy to lose sight of the W-L column as the games pile up. If you accept the 94-win standard, then winning 15-16 games each month will put you at 94 wins by season's end. This is also a good standard to follow when watching the high-tide, low-tide trends of a season.

Standard #4: The starting rotation should win 65 games.
Of the eight playoff teams in 2004, 6 of them got 65+ wins out of their starting pitchers. The two that did not (the Dodgers & Twins) had exceptional bullpens. The Twins' Juan Rincon earned 11 victories as a long reliever (hardly typical on any team), and the Dodgers had arguably the best 8th-9th inning combination in baseball. When your offense is playing 9-innings and your opponent's offense is playing 7, you're going to have opportunities for rallies. With a bullpen that is questionable at best, the Cubs can ill afford to fall short on this Standard.

Of the 120+ starts that Prior-Zambrano-Maddux-Wood should make this season, it's reasonable to believe that they can combine for 60 wins, leaving the 5th starter slot responsible for 5 wins. [The Red Sox had a remarkable 73 wins from their starting pitchers in '04.] Broken down further, the rotation should have 11 favorable decisions per month. If a team is getting 15-16 wins each month, but the starters are only getting 8-10 of those decisions, it's a sure-fire indicator that the bullpen is being overworked. Teams in this situation usually fade as the season grinds on.

Standard #5: A minimum fielding percentage of .980.
A .999 fielding percentage won't necessarily put you in the playoffs, but you can't win consistently by giving teams extra outs. Errors not only give opponents extra opportunities, they frustrate the @#$% out of a pitching staff. None of last season's playoff teams had a fielding percentage below .981. [Note: Despite all the hype about the number of Gold Glovers on the field for the Cardinals, and the attention paid to Aramis's past troubles at third, the Cubs actually had a higher team fielding percentage than the Cardinals in 2004.]

There you have it, the "Blueprint" to the playoffs. Some of you will notice a glaring hole in this model. I left out any mention of offense. Offensive stats are more difficult to quantify in wins and losses. At team can hit .288 for a season, as the Red Sox did, or a Dodger-esque .262 and still make the playoffs. I'll leave the win-share offensive stats to the sabermetric guys and gals. If Standards 1-4 are being met, a team obviously has enough offense.

Anyway, these are the numbers that I will be tracking throughout the season. Expect an April preview (target: 15 wins, 12 losses) prior to Opening Day and then month-by-month summaries as the season rolls along.

Head Out of the Sand

2005-02-03T07:20:00.000-05:00

I didn't want to believe it could happen. I tried to avoid thinking about the possiblity. But I now have to accept the fact that Jeromy Burnitz is a Cub. I've never liked Burnitz, I never wanted this signing to take place but now that it has, I'm here to say I'm officially a Jeromy Burnitz fan. I'm not overly optimistic, but I hope he has a career year. I hope he surprises me, excites me and makes me eat crow for all of the negative things I've had to say about the guy.

Do I expect him to replace Sammy's numbers? No. Do I expect him to replace Alou's numbers? No. He's not a Carlos Beltran. He's not a Magglio. But he's at least a Reggie Sanders. If he can put up some better-than-Sanders-like numbers, he'll earn $5 million.

I'm a big believer in the philosophy of playing to win your division. If you win your division, you're in the playoffs and then it just takes a couple of hot weeks to put you in the World Series. If you look at the position-by-position rosters of the Cubs, Cards and Astros, I think we're in pretty good shape. The Cards will score more runs. They have obvious advantages at the first base, center field and third base positions. I think the Cubs have an obvious edge at the catcher, second base and shortstop positions. The Astros don't really match up well at all except when you compare left fielders, in which Berkman edges out the other two teams, but will miss at least the first month of the season. So pitching staffs aside (in which the Cubs have a huge advantage), the Cubs' line-up on the whole seems to balance out favorably within the division. With a healthy rotation and a healthy Nomar, the Cubs should be the favorites to win the Central.

P.S. One note of caution to season ticket holders around the first base line: Jeromy will likely swing and miss between 500-750 times at Wrigley Field this season. His all-out swing and the law of averages suggests that the bat will fly out of his hands and into the stands more than once this season. Be alert and stay safe.

In Defense of Byron

2005-01-31T17:36:00.000-05:00

Byron, over at The Cubdom (link in sidebar) has been taking some shots of late for a post advocating playing time for Jason Dubois.

One critic in particular, who shall remain nameless (no free plug here,) continues to promote the notion that a team cannot be expected to win with rookies in their line-up. To this point I must defend my fellow blogger. Does anyone remember 1989? Before Will Clark ripped my heart out and replaced Steve Garvey as Public Enemy Number One, the Cubs won the NL East with two rookies--in the form of Jerome Walton and Dwight Smith--receiving significant playing time. Walton played 116 games, started in center and batted in the lead-off position- not an easy thing to ask of a rookie. Smith made his debut in May of that year, played in 109 games, hit surprisingly well, and even sang the National Anthem before games. Keep in mind also that the '89 Cubs featured a second-year starter at first in Mark Grace and a still very-young Greg Maddux as the #2 starter.

Not only did the rookies help the team make the playoffs, they provided a great atmosphere around the team. The baseball world was abuzz over the young guys and their youthful energy seemed to be contagious throughout the organization and its fan base. Young players can be a godsend to an organization in a rut. With so much talk about bad chemistry in the dugout last season, perhaps a little rookie exuberance is needed.

If you're a true Cubs fan, you have to have faith in your guys. More often than not (or almost always), faith is all we have. [The critic mentioned above sounds more like a Red Sox fan, notoriously the most bitter, pessimistic sports fans on the planet.] Cubs fans tend to be a very optimistic and forgiving lot. We put up with Sammy and his antics while he was hitting 50 homeruns, so why tear down a Jason Dubois before he even gets a chance to prove himself?

If the Cubs go the way of the Yankees and buy a couple of outfielders, the same people that are complaining about Hendry's complacency in the offseason will be complaining at the trade deadline in July. There's no sense in signing Maggs to a bad contract if there are serious doubts about his knee. There is never a reason to sign Burnitz. Huff would be o.k., but I'm not sold on him. Just because those are the guys that are out there right now, does not mean they are the only options. There's plenty of time to get another outfielder by trade if Dubois struggles as other teams look to unload payroll. The Cubs have the farm system to make a deal during the season, and Jim Hendry has done a pretty good job at playing the mid-season market.

So have a little faith, Brothers and Sisters of Cubland.

Byron, stay strong. We true believers have your back.

Sosa Trade Leaves More Holes

2005-01-29T06:22:00.000-05:00

I picked the wrong night to go to bed early. I had to wake up to the news and posting on other blogs of the pending Sosa trade for Jerry Hairston, Jr & prospects.

I'm not sure how I feel about this. With Alou and Sammy gone, the Cubs are letting 75 HRs leave the outfield. This WILL have an impact on the team. I've never really liked the pray-for- the-longball style of play. I prefer manufacturing runs. I think it helps you win the close games, the 1-run games that the Cubs seemed to routinely give away last season. With two sluggers gone, the Cubs are going to have to become a different team with a different attitude. I have faith in the personnel. I think the guys in the clubhouse can make the adjustments and the team could be better for it. But I don't have a lot of faith in the idea that Dusty Baker can change his stripes and embrace small ball. He's going to have to manage on the field instead of just coddling the personalities in the clubhouse. I don't know if he can do it (but I hope he can).

A potential outfield of Hairston, Patterson, Dubois doesn't really excite me much. I think Hairston's a good acquisition. He has speed. He can play several positions if necessary. If the Patterson lead off experiment fails (again), Hairston may be a good Plan B. Let's keep in mind that Hairston hasn't played a full season since 2001. Annointing him as the answer to our lead-off prayers is a bit of a stretch. I think he'll bat 8th. I also have reservations about trading a Hall of Fame slugger for a guy that's been a platoon player for a 3rd or 4th place team. I've never been an advocate of dealing Sammy just to get rid of him. Happy or unhappy, pain in the ass or not, the numbers don't lie and a bad year for Sammy is a career year for 90% of baseball. That production has to be replaced- not necessarily by one player, but it does need to be replaced.

Aramis Ramirez is not going to have line-up protection from Alou or Sosa. He's the man, now and he's not going to see the same pitches he saw last year. Can Aramis carry a team offensively? I think he can. At the conclusion of last year, I thought he was about one more year away from being a superstar. That timetable (if accurate at all) will have to be accelerated. Dubois is going to have to be the real deal this year, but Dusty will have to let him play.

The offseason isn't over and in all honesty the team isn't really set until the trade deadline. Jim Hendry has done a great job in making moves over the years and I have to believe that he'll be on the phone again today seeing what he can do next. I'm sure many of you, like myself, have already tried to scribble out potential line-up cards. All of this will be thrown out if we acquire another outfielder. If this move frees up money for Magglio, and Maggs is healthy, everything changes (again). I don't really have a good ending for this post. I'm still in a bit of shock over the news. We'll see what develops over the next few days, but I think this trade produces more questions than answers.

Idle Hands are the Media's Workshop

2005-01-28T07:36:00.000-05:00

In the absence of any real news, baseball writers are beating the Sosa rumors to death and coming up with some crazy scenarios.

The most ridiculous of these scenarios (passed off as hard journalism) claims that the Nationals are interested in acquiring Sosa if the Cubs pick up his $17 million salary. Really? Is this news? You know, if the Cubs were going to offer to pay Sammy's salary, the Nationals are not the only team interested. There are about 29 teams interested in getting 35-40 HRs and 100+ RBI for FREE. How can these people actually type these stories and submit them to their editors with a straight face? The truth is, they probably don't. They have space to fill and deadlines to meet and they know that now matter what piece of 3rd-rate drivel they turn in there's a built-in national fan base that will read it.

We are all sheep.

Fat Elvis

2005-01-28T07:27:00.000-05:00

Lance Berkman agreed to terms with the Astros yesterday.

I once heard Lance give a radio interview in which he was critiquing the Major League stadiums that had the best dugout gum. He went on to say that the gum at Minute Maid park was hard and tasted like it was left over from the Astrodome and that he'd have to keep gum in mind when negotiating future contracts.

I don't bring this up because the Astros' press release included any mention of gum clauses. I bring it up because I like guys with quirky personalities. I think it's important to have guys like that around to keep your dugout loose. If Berkman were a Cub, I think he'd be one of the most popular guys on the team and the "Fat Elvis" barbs would immediately end.

But until he's a Cub, I will let the insults fly and will encourage other Cub fans to do the same.

The Lesson the Mets will Learn

2005-01-26T06:46:00.000-05:00

The Mets will learn the difference between December-January headlines and September-October headlines this season.

With the signings of Kris Benson, Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran, which dominated the baseball sporting news much longer than they should have, the Mets are still not a very good team. Are they better than last year? Yes- but they lost 91 games last year. That's two more games than the Cubs won (as a life-long hater of the Mets, I loved typing that statement). Even if they win 91 games this year, they may not make the playoffs (just ask the Giants). At this point, the Mets are battling with the Phillies to be the 3rd best team in the NL East.

The Braves are the NL East champs and will be the favorite to win until someone can beat them. Bobby Cox always seems to find a way. The Marlins were a pretty good team before getting Al Leiter and Carlos Delgado. Delgado really locks down their line-up. They also have a rotation that will include Josh Beckett, Dontrelle Willis, Al Leiter, AJ Burnett and probably Ismael Valdez. Alfonseca had a good year last year setting up John Smoltz. This year he'll have a chance to do it for Mota. The Mets' staff even with Benson and Pedro does not compare.

The Braves will probably have another hoe-hum division title and the Marlins will be the most exciting team in the division to watch. By June the New York media machine that is currently pumping this Mets team up into something it is not will tear this team down with equal zeal.

Reality Check: Cubs' Offseason Not a Failure

2005-01-24T07:07:00.000-05:00

Around Thanksgiving everybody in the Cubs universe was worried that Neifi Perez was going to be our starting shortstop and rumors abounded that Tony Womack was going be playing second. Jim Hendry went out and resigned Nomar Garciaparra (a career .322 hitter and natural leader) and Todd Walker (a left-handed bat with some pop and a guy who's hungry to win). These signings were big headlines about a month ago, but seem to have been discarded as non-deals today.

Let's try to keep things in perspective. With too many 24-hour Sports News channels, talk radio, and yes- the Blogosphere, things get overanalyzed and beaten to death to the point where a team that isn't signing a big name player every other day is sitting on their hands dooming their fans for next year. I'll spout off about the 24/7 news cycle's destruction of the American attention span some other time, but for now, just consider that nugget of information.

The Yankees have made the offseason bidding wars a very fashionable thing. But people seem to forget that the Yankees have created a system for themselves that requires them to go out and reload with big names every year to stay competetive. They've decimated their minor league system to the point where building from within is not an option. Sure, they grab headlines and when it works out and they win a World Series, Steinbrenner & Cashman look like geniuses committed to delivering a winner to their fans. When they don't win a World Series, they look like goats and quickly scramble to patch things up. This is a scary way to do business, but because it happens every year in the worlds largetst media market, it gets huge coverage everywhere.

In contrast, look at the Atlanta Braves. The Braves rarely make a huge splash in the offseason. They make a few signings. They make a few trades. Some of these deals involve big name players (usually pitchers), but they generally trade for guys that fit their system or young talent that they hope to cultivate. The Braves draft well, they develop players well and they've been the most successful team in the National League for about 15 years running.

As an organization, I'd rather be in the Braves' situation- and I think the Cubs are very close to that. The truth is, the Cubs didn't have many holes to fill this offseason, when compared with other teams in the league and certainly when compared with other teams in the division. Carlos Beltran would have been nice. Danny Kolb would have been nice. Keeping Matt Clement would have been nice. But somebody else (outside the Central) overpaid for Beltran. The Brewers were obviously asking for too much from the Cubs for Danny Kolb (who's only had one good year). I love Matt Clement and I think he's going to be great in Boston, but he's a #4 or #5 starter in our rotation. How much are you willing to pay for a #4 or 5 guy when most teams (i.e. St. Louis) struggle to field a solid #3.

Moises Alou is gone and replacing his numbers will be difficult. Could Jason Dubois replace those numbers this year? Probably not. Could he play left field and put up good rookie numbers? Yes. [Prediction: If Dubois posts .280avg./25HR/80RBI, and the Cubs win the division, he'll be Rookie of the Year] Could Nomar pick up some of those numbers at shortstop? Yes- and he probably will. Keep in mind that Alex Gonzalez was there last season and you could have made a pretty good argument that he should bat behind the pitcher. Could Sammy come back and have a 40+ HR season? Sure. Could Wood and Prior stay healthy and combine for 30-35 wins? Yes. Could Zambrano and Maddux surprise the league with a combined 32 wins again? Yes. Could Kyle Farnsworth; or Ryan Dempster; or Joe Borowski; or Will Ohman emerge as the closer this year? Sure. Could all of these things happen? Yes Will any of them happen? That's why the games are played.

On paper, today's roster is better than the roster that went into camp a year ago- and it's a lot better than the team that went into camp in 2003. Our team has improved while our division competitors are noticably worse off. Perhaps I'm too much of an optimist (a statement that will make anyone who knows me belly laugh). The headlines haven't been as exciting this year, but do they really need to be? I, for one like our chances.

Breaking Down the Rocket's Deal

2005-01-21T19:58:00.000-05:00

I made a brief mention of some of this in a comment at Old Style Cubs (link right).

The Cubs will pay Greg Maddux $9 million this season. The Astros will pay Roger Clemens twice that amount. Both pitchers started 33 games last season. Clemens won 18 games (2nd best on his own team). Maddux won 16 games last season (tied for first on his team). $9 million more than Maddux when comparitively he only won 2 more games...that's $4.5 million per extra win(or $1 million per win). That's a lot of money. It makes Maddux look like an incredible bargain. But let's look at what this huge contract really means for Roger Clemens.

Clemens will be expected to have better numbers than last season, which is not easy to do considering last year was good enough for a Cy Young. He'll be expected to win 20 games. He'll be expected to win early in the season, too. I don't have the numbers to back this up, but I'm willing to bet that his electric start last season got fans interested early and put asses in the seats that stuck with the team throughout the year. If he comes out dropping his first three decisions or starts out 2-3, writers across the country will try to tear him down. Last year he gave the "hometown discount" and started 7-0 (or 7-1 or something) and writers were rooting for him. He made a great story. Now that he's got the biggest single-season paycheck of any pitcher in history, he's got a tremendous target on his back- especially from Yankee writers that are still pissed about his not-so-retired "retirement" and Boston writers that have been pissed at him since he went to Toronto and got more pissed when he went to New York and won a ring. He'll have to have more success with an offense far inferior to last season's. And don't forget that he'll have to do it in Minute Maid Park- not exactly a pitcher's paradise.

In short, he'll have to be the greatest he's ever been.

This scares me. It scares me because if anybody can buck up under pressure, not be shaken and deliver on such expectations it's Roger Clemens. People can say he's a bad guy or a jerk or whatever- but so was Bob Gibson and Cardinals fans don't seem to complain about it too much. The guy wins games- period. He's been written off too many times and always bounced back and beaten his critics. A lot of the writers mentioned above thought the move to the National League was a huge mistake and that he couldn't hack it anymore. He proved them all wrong, and gave the Cubs hell along the way. Now the stakes are higher and his critics will be champing at the bit for him to fail. If history serves as any guide, he probably won't.

I still don't think the Astros will contend for the division, but they could play spoilers for the Cubs. In a nutshell, I'm not looking forward to facing the Rocket this year.

Houston Serves Up Big $ to Clemens

2005-01-21T17:41:00.000-05:00

Roger Clemens accepted Houston's offer of $18 million to come back and pitch this season. That's a lot of scratch, but had they gone through the arbitration process Clemens may have gotten the full $22 million. The Astros may have "saved" $4 million on this deal.

John Lopez had an excellent article in the Houston Chronicle yesterday abouth the Astros' financial situation. You can link to this article in the "Know Thy Enemy" sidebar. Lopez contends that Clemens or no Clemens, the Astros are in a very tight financial situation. It's worth a read.

I hope to have more this weekend as things develop.

Good News: New Home Unis

2005-01-18T07:36:00.000-05:00

This makes me really happy. The Cubs are expected to unveil new home uniforms for the 2005 season that will not include the names on the jerseys. I've always hated the names.

Real Cub fans don't need the names, and if you're not a Cub fan I don't really care if you're informed or not. The "Sosa" or the "Wood" on the back of the jersey doesn't matter. The big red "C" on the front of the jersey is what matters and anyone wearing that jersey, I'll cheer on, for better or for worse- which means that I've gladly cheered on a lot of substandard performers. Now if we can just get rid of the names on the road jerseys- but first things first. I'll take this as a step in the right direction.

Of course, I've always thought that Penn State has the best college football uniforms, so my fashion sense is questionable.

Pujols in Pain

2005-01-18T07:14:00.000-05:00

Because there is still no news coming out of Wrigley, I'm forced to pay attention to the Cardinals.

Both USA Today and the St. Louis Post-Dispatch are reporting that Albert Pujols is experiencing pain in his heel. Pujols apparently played through this pain most of the year last year. He received treatment on it during the offseason which seemed to help, but as he started working out to prepare for spring training, the pain has started to return.

I don't wish injuries on anybody. I want to beat the Cardinals and I want to beat the best they have. I don't want them to have any excuses. But Pujols put up a .331 average last season, hit 46 HRs and drove in 123. If this guy can post these numbers with a nagging foot injury, I don't know if I want to face him at 100%.

In other Cardinals news, Rick (Vaughn) Ankiel pitched well in winter ball and though he cut his season short with a "twinge" in his surgically repaired elbow, he appears to be fine. I don't think I've seen a pitcher in recent memory absolutely melt down the way Ankiel did for the Cards. Hopefully he'll make the team and have a chance to repeat that deconstruction. If he gets to pitch in Wrigley, please be advised that the Cubs organization is not liable for injuries incurred by objects flying into the stands, be they home runs or wild pitches.

Dubois or Hollandsworth?

2005-01-14T21:42:00.000-05:00

Joe at "The View from the Bleachers" (link in sidebar) posted a good question a couple of days ago. He asked if the season were to start today, do you go with Dubois or Hollandsworth in left field. One of my comments made the "cut" and the question brought out several good comments. Most respondants would go with Dubois- and I was one of them. One of the points that was not mentioned was the fact that Hollandsworth is a known quantity and probably has a relatively "fixed" trade value regardless of his numbers early in the season. If Dubois is playing and either he or Sammy are hot out of the gate, their trade value (be it for another outfielder, or closer or both) would be significantly higher. I'm still crossing my fingers on Maggs and will continue to do so until he inks a deal, but if he's not on the North Side come April, let the young guy play and see what he can do.

Big ups to Joe for the question. It was good to get an idea of how other fans feel on the issue.

Look out for the Astros!

2005-01-14T21:24:00.000-05:00

Well, I just can't let this one go by without a sarcastic comment or two. The Astros have saved their off-season. Sure, they let Wade Miller (who was once their best pitcher) go without a fight and sign with Boston. Andy Pettitte is coming back off an elbow surgery and Roger Clemens may or may not be back at all. But don't feel sorry for the Astros- they signed Dave Burba and Turk Wendell. I can just hear the Astros fans now: "Phew! We lost out on Beltran and we let Jeff Kent get away, but at least the front office bounced back right away by grabbing Burba and Wendell."

I'm not going to rag on Turk too much. My parents used to follow the Cubs to Arizona for spring training (while I was stuck in Ohio with my own basebabll practices) and I remember them coming back one year talking about the quirky Wendell and how much time he spent with the kids that hung around the stadium and the parking lot. I have a soft spot for that kind of thing. It doesn't seem like enough players do that (or at least you don't hear about it). The guy's also a former Cub, so I wish him well when he's pitching against someone else. That being said, the Cubs let him go for a reason and he hasn't turned into gold elsewhere.

But Dave Burba I will rip on. Any pitcher that the Indians and the Brewers let go is probably not the answer to your prayers. This guy looked like he was pushing 45 when he was 29. This is not the most inspiring move the club could have made this week. I know that they are not expensive contracts and from a business standpoint, these are probably good moves. But coming off the heels of losing Beltran to the Mets, I don't think too many Houstonians picked up the Chronicle Thursday and started calling their buddies with excitement.

More Good News Out of Houston

2005-01-12T07:05:00.000-05:00

The Houston Chronicle is reporting that the Astros are in pursuit of Jeromy Burnitz. I hope they get him, because I certainly don't want him in a Cub uniform. The Astros hope to be able to sign him by the end of next week. That would give the Cubs all the more reason to sign Magglio.

Happy Birthday, Publius!

2005-01-11T17:31:00.000-05:00

I post under the name "Publius" in homage to the Federalist Papers, written by founding fathers Alexander Hamilton, James Madison and John Jay. Each of the Federalist Papers was signed with the pen name "Publius" to protect the anonymity of the author. Most historians contribute 52 of the 85 Federalist Papers to Hamilton.

Alexander Hamilton was born on January 11, 1757 on the Caribbean island of Nevis. He was one of the greatest men of thought, action and conviction the world has ever known. He was the right man, in the right place and in the right time in history, and thank God for that. If you'd like to learn more about Hamilton, go to http://www.alexanderhamiltonexhibition.org/.

Happy Birthday, Publius.

A Diversion: Sleepy Team on the Cuyahoga

2005-01-11T07:08:00.000-05:00

This is a non-Cubs post, but I do live in Ohio and I found this morning's news about Juan Gonzalez worthy of comment.

I don't normally follow the American League very closely. I'll keep track of individual players or individual stories, but I don't sit down and watch very many AL games from beginning to end throughout the course of the season. When I do watch AL games, I usually watch the Indians on the FoxSports Ohio channel. The Tribe was not a very good team last year, but they did provide sparks of excitement. They have several young players that play like they have something to prove. I love watching guys that push themselves every play of every game, and an entire team of young, hungry players like that is a joy to watch for any baseball fan.

The Indians are slowly but steadily becoming a good team again. In 2004, catcher Victor Martinez and DH Travis Hafner established themselves as solid big-league hitters and RBI machines (108 & 109 respectively). Coco Crisp (if you can get past the name) hit close to .300 last year, hit 24 doubles and swiped 20 bases. Casey Blake is an emerging player and the move from third to the outfield this year should help.

On a tight budget, the Cleveland front-office has done a good job of adding some veterans and role players to support the emerging young guns. Aaron Boone will be playing third this year. The Tribe acquired Arthur Rhodes to set-up closer Bob Wickman (last year's Joe Borowski). They already had legitimate starters in Westbrook and Sabathia (depending on his size), but signed Kevin Millwood to a very good, incentive-laden contract. The new minor-league signing of Juan Gonzalez is the icing on the cake. In another incentive-laden deal, the Indians have added another potentially big bat at very low risk.

In what is arguably the weakest division in baseball, the Indians could make a run at the playoffs if Millwood and Juan "Gone" have strong seasons. If not, the Indians will still be fun to watch and won't be decimated financially. That's good baseball and good business. Hat's off.

Comparison Shopping

2005-01-10T07:12:00.000-05:00

Though I would love to see Carlos Beltran in Cub uniform, for $119 million, the Mets can have him. Here's a quick look at the numbers.

Carlos Beltran, '04: .267 avg. / .366 OBP / .926 OPS / 38 HR / 104 RBI / 101 K / 92 BB

Moises Alou, '04: .293 avg. / .361 OBP / .919 OPS / 39 HR / 106 RBI / 80 K / 68 BB

And just for kicks, look at this 2003 line:

Magglio Ordonez, '03: .317 avg. / .380 OBP / .926 OPS / 29 HR / 99 RBI / 73 K / 57 BB

Alou put up similar (and in some cases, better) numbers to Beltran last year and Magglio has been in the same range when healthy. Granted, neither Maggs nor Moises are center fielders, nor are they stolen base threats, but defense in center has never been on my list of beefs with Corey Patterson and Dusty doesn't play the running game anyway.

For the money, I think the Cubs made a wise decision and in the long run the Mets contract will look like a bad deal. While at times I've been frustrated with the sluggish offseason moves, Jim Hendry is a hell of a smart guy doing a pretty good job and putting a quality product on the field.

***
Depending on which sources or newspapers you read, a deal with Magglio is either imminent or hinging on a Sosa trade. We'll just have to see. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that he'll sign in the next few weeks.

24 1/2 hours, but who's counting?

2005-01-08T00:00:00.000-05:00

The Astros have 24 1/2 hours to sign Carlos Beltran. If any of the rumors regarding the Cubs' offer are true, then Jim Hendry was only pretending to be involved in the bidding process.

Seven year contracts are a bad idea. I would love to have Carlos Beltran. He's the best player in the game right now and entering the prime of his career. That being said, it won't break my heart if he doesn't become a Cub this weekend. I went into the free agent season with the mindset that one of two things needed to occur: 1)sign one of the top three outfielders on the market (Beltran, J.D. Drew, or Magglio Ordonez); or 2) make sure none of these three sign with another NL Central team.

Drew didn't sign, but he's in the West. Hopefully Beltran will choose Shea over Minute Maid. If Maggs doesn't move across town, I hope he finds an AL suitor (perhaps Detroit). If one of these guys signs with the Cubs or none of them sign with competing NL Central teams, I feel really good about our chances in taking the division crown.

It will mean that both St. Louis and Houston will appear (on paper) to be significantly weaker than they were last year and we'll have (knock on wood) a stronger team going into the season. This opens up a huge opportunity for the Cubs to run away with the division the way the Cardinals did last season. It means more rest for everyone in the line-up and everyone in the rotation. It means more at-bats and more situations for younger players who may be needed later in the season. It means sitting in the drivers' seat that the majority of baseball analysts predicted the Cubs would sit in during the 2004 season.

Perhaps I'm jumping way ahead, here. I know that nobody has even stretched a hamstring in Arizona yet. But while wallowing in this holding pattern of waiting for news on Beltran, it's better to daydream of the possibilities than fret over potential let-down. After all, I did manage to eat up half an hour.

24 more hours to go. But who's counting?

Trophy Hunting

2005-01-07T17:53:00.000-05:00

There was an explosion of Internet buzz about the ball caught by Doug Mientkiewicz for the final out of the World Series. Does it belong to Mientkiewicz? Does it belong to the Red Sox? Is it going to be auctioned off? Will it be in a museum?

In the absence of any real Red Sox news (like a Derek Lowe signing), this story is being packaged as some kind of moral dilemma. As a Cubs fan, this story really pisses me off. Who cares about the ball? The only moment that the ball in question actually mattered was when Mientkiewicz squeezed his mitt around it for that final out. It's not about the ball. It's about the unbridled joy that comes from winning. That moment; that feeling; is not captured in the leather covered twine of the ball- it's in the memory banks of every Red Sox fan.

Generations of Red Sox fans lived their entire lives without seeing their favorite team win it all. No video exists of the last championship. The final out of the 2004 Red Sox victory will be forever captured in photograph, VHS, DVD, Internet streaming video, and every format imaginable until the end of time. Red Sox fans will be able to relive that moment the rest of their lives, whether the ball is on display in a museum or in someone's personal vault.

I, for one will not be complaining if Derek Lee is clinging to a ball a year from now. Auction it off. Give it to the team. Give it to Cooperstown. You won't hear a peep out of me. I'll be too busy savoring the joy of winning and being grateful for getting to see what generations of Cubs fans before me did not.

(Obligatory) Thoughts on Ryne Sandberg

2005-01-04T06:58:00.000-05:00

I'm a bit under the weather today and the nasal congestion is clouding my ability to put together strong paragraphs, but if you're trying to get a baseball blog off the ground and you don't post on Hall of Fame balloting day, you're not much of a fan. So I must soldier on.

I hope today brings good news for Ryne Sandberg. Sandberg was the man when I was growing up. Even during the Michael Jordan days, the only #23 in Chicago that excited me was Ryno (just as the only "Mike" was Ditka). In the era of Jeff Kent and Brett Boone and what I like to call the slow-pitch softball style of play (that is producing big numbers and big athletes, but few complete ballplayers), I enjoy looking back and thinking of the Sandberg-era.

Sandberg dominated his position for a decade. We all know the stats- 9 straight Gold Gloves, MVP in '84, the home runs and the best fielding percentage of any 2nd baseman in history. He also led the league in home runs one season in the pre-juiced ball/ juiced-player / juiced ballpark era. In the late-80s and early-90s, 2nd basemen were not supposed to be able to hit 40 dingers.

One of the things I remember most about the Sandberg-era Cubs was how bad most of those teams were. Sure we had hope in '84 and '89, but who really thought that Keith Moreland and Steve Trout were going to lead us to the promised land? No matter how suspect the supporting cast, every year you could count on #23 locking down the middle of the infield, turning double plays and churning out All-Star numbers at the plate. He made the games worth watching.

I feel spoiled these days, wondering who our closer is going to be or whether or not we're going to get into the Beltran sweepstakes. In a few short years, we (Cubs fans) have become greedy. We've tasted success and we want more. Going into spring training, we know we're a contender. We have a front office that has a desire to win. They're operating within a budget (as we all are- except maybe the Yankees), but they are making efforts to put a contender on the field. That, to me is an incredible feeling. We have some bonafide stars on the team, some developing young stars and a bevy of young talent waiting to be brought up.

I'm sure Ryne Sandberg would pass up the Hall of Fame to be able to play for today's Cubs and take a shot at a World Series title, but I hope he'll get to settle for Cooperstown.

What Would Be the Harm?

2004-12-29T15:32:00.000-05:00

Sometimes lunch in downtown Columbus can produce some interesting thoughts.

While eating my mushroom chicken at Moon Star today, I was pondering the Cubs' left-field situation. I was keeping my fingers crossed on a J.D. Drew signing until the Dodgers crushed those dreams. Beltran is looking like a bigger pipe dream every day. [Personally, if he doesn't sign with the Cubs, I'd prefer he sign with an A.L. team and get the hell out of our division.] That leaves Magglio hanging out there with questionable health.

Magglio would be my first choice as the "best of the rest" free agents. He already has a Chicago fan base, knows how to handle himself in the big city and when healthy, blisters the ball from righties and lefties. I think Maggs would be an excellent choice and an excellent fit with the Cubs. That being said, I don't think it's going to happen. I was very happy with Jim Hendry the day Walker and Garciaparra signed, but that happiness has faded quickly. Yes, Jim, as I heard a million times growing up, "You're only as good as your last at-bat," and your last at-bat has been wiffing on the hole in left field.

Then my thoughts turned to finding a no-Maggs solution. Without a star to fill the void, we don't need to sign anyone to a multi-year deal. We don't even really need someone to play full-time for the full season. We really just need someone that could hold down the fort, get on base, and allow Jason DuBois a chance to get some big-league at-bats and develop.

Who out there can do that? The conclusion that I came to was somewhat embarassing- Rickey Henderson. And I don't know if it was the MSG or the dim lighting, but for some reason it makes perfect sense to me. Sure, he's old- but look at Julio Franco in Atlanta. Sure, he's not what he used to be- but who among us is? The guy still has a burning desire to play. He's every bit as good-and I would say better- than 90% of the 4th/back-up outfielders in baseball. He's on on-base percentage guy, which, if I recall was one of our big problem spots last year. I've read that his bat isn't as good, but the beauty of Rickey's game was always his great command of the strike zone and his great eye. He could platoon in left, pinch hit, pinch run and here's the kicker- he'd be inexpensive.

There could be some other benefits to a Henderson farewell tour coming out of Wrigley. He may be able to teach Corey Patterson that it's o.k. to take a pitch every once in a while. Wrigley fans have always been very good at giving respect to the greats. I can see visions of standing ovations every time the guys trots out to pinch run. Sure, it would be a little bit of a side-show, but it would be a positive one. The Shawn-O-Meter never hurt anybody, and I don't think a Rickey Henderson stint would hurt either.

I'll probably look back on this post someday and wonder what the hell I was thinking, but answer me this: What would be the harm in inviting Rickey to camp?

New Blog's Holiday Clog

2004-12-29T08:24:00.000-05:00

Well the ice storm that blanketed Central Ohio ended my hopes of a Thursday broadband installation. I'd hoped to have about 5 postings by now, but no such luck. The new broadband target date is this Friday, so we'll see if the folks at Time Warner cable come through.

The blog looks very generic at this point. I hope to dress it up soon and add some photos and graphics. I'm still very green and not the most technologically proficient guy around, so it may take some time. But much like my weight loss regiment, I'm sticking with the "chopping down a tree" philosophy of slow, but steady progress.

If anyone reads this, I would appreciate any advice on blog window dressing.

Pseudo-defense of #21

2004-12-29T07:02:00.000-05:00

Finally a Cubs post.

It looks like time is running out on the Beltran meter and the Sosa-trade meter. I'm not as gung-ho about a Sosa trade as most bloggers. To me, the only way it makes sense is if it guarantees a Beltran signing. Sosa straight up for Cliff Floyd does not help us.

Sammy frustrates me just as much as anyone else. I do agree with the Steve Stone (oh, wise man) notion of the organization creating a monster. But this monster still hits a lot of home runs and is still a feared hitter in the line up. Sammy had what was considered a terrible season in 2004. Moises Alou had the best year of his career. Alou hit 39 HRs, Sosa hit 35. His worst year in recent memory was better than another player's career year. We've already lost Alou's numbers (though I think it was the right move to let him go). If we send Sammy's numbers elsewhere (even if they're a paltry 35HR/80RBI) and don't get a superstar in return, the '05 season is doomed.

I also don't like the idea of trading someone in the last year of his contract. When trying to put together my draft board for my fantasy team, I try to nab as many guys as possible who are in the last year of their contracts. When the season has a potential pot of gold at the end of it, guys usually step it up. This is one of the reasons I was so excited about Nomar and Walker signing one-year deals. If- and that's a big IF- Sammy comes into the season determined to lock down a big contract for next year and to silence his growing list of critics, he could have a big season and I'd hate to see that happen in another uniform.

On a big-picture note, this team is a lot better than it was a few years ago. We don't need 60 HRs out of Sammy. 40 HRs and 110 RBI would be a great year with this supporting cast. It would provide enough of a shield for Ramirez and Lee to see good pitches and get their numbers. It's not a one-man show anymore. There's a lot of talent on the field. A better-than-04 Sosa makes this team significantly better.

I hate it when I sound like I'm defending Sosa, but when you look at the other alternatives there's not much out there. Sans a Beltran signing, I'm o.k. seeing #21 in right field [ for one more year].

Welcome

2004-12-20T07:34:00.000-05:00

This blog will be maintained by a late-20s Cubs fan living in Columbus, Ohio. I plan to post my musings on Cubs baseball, baseball in general, politics and life. I hope that this forum will satisfy my creative writing urges and provide at least a little thought provoking entertainment for those who peruse the blog.